Exact Answer

Best FanDuel Super Bowl LX pot-odds bet (high-payout + still live hit probability)

Bet: Drake Maye — Most Rushing Yards in the Game (+700)

For the specific objective you gave, this is the strongest blend of large return and credible path to cash from the currently available board I pulled.

Odds +700

Break-Even Win Rate 12.50%

Model Win Rate 16.04%

Estimated Edge +3.54%

EV per $1 +$0.283

Patriots +4.5 dog script favors QB scrambles Maye playoff rushes: 66, 10, 65 yards Walker under pressure vs strong Pats run D 7-to-1 profit multiple

Data Freshness + Market Snapshot

Data captured from FanDuel Research pages and live-rendered odds tables on Sunday, February 8, 2026 (U.S. time context). Lines can move by minute and by state.

Core Market (current snapshot)

Market	Patriots	Seahawks
Moneyline	-240	+198
Spread	-4.5 (-112)	+4.5 (-108)
Total	Over 45.5 (-108)	Under 45.5 (-112)

De-vig fair win rates from moneyline: Patriots 67.78%, Seahawks 32.22%.

Relevant Longshot Boards Pulled

Board	Top Prices Seen
Most Rushing Yards	Walker -185, Stevenson +270, Maye +700
First TD	Walker +370, JSN +600, Stevenson +750, Henry +1500, Maye +1700
MVP	Darnold +115, Maye +230, JSN +550, Walker +850, deep longshots +10000+

Pot-Odds Ranking (Payout-Focused)

Ranking formula: EV per $1 = p(win) * net-odds - (1 - p(win)), where p(win) is my probability model using game script + player usage evidence.

Rank	Bet	Odds	Break-Even	Model p(win)	Edge	EV / $1	$10 Profit If Wins
1	Drake Maye most rushing yards in game	+700	12.50%	16.04%	+3.54%	+$0.283	$70
2	Rhamondre Stevenson first touchdown scorer	+750	11.76%	12.20%	+0.44%	+$0.037	$75
3	Hunter Henry first touchdown scorer	+1500	6.25%	5.80%	-0.45%	-$0.072	$150
4	JSN Super Bowl MVP	+550	15.38%	14.20%	-1.18%	-$0.077	$55
5	DeMarcus Lawrence Super Bowl MVP	+10000	0.99%	0.90%	-0.09%	-$0.091	$1000
6	TreVeyon Henderson Super Bowl MVP	+12500	0.79%	0.70%	-0.09%	-$0.118	$1250

Interpretation: among true longshot-style tickets, Maye +700 was the only one with a material modeled positive edge after break-even math.

Why Maye +700 Is the Best Pot-Odds Play

Evidence Stack

Signal	Direction
Patriots enter as +4.5 underdogs	More dropbacks, more scramble opportunities for Maye
Maye rushing in playoffs: 66 / 10 / 65	Ceiling game profile already appeared twice in 3 games
Maye runs more in losses (34.6) than wins (24.8)	Game script alignment with underdog status
Walker season rushing avg 60.4; Pats run D has recent strong suppression signals	Raises chance Maye can out-rush both RB1s in one game

Price Sensitivity (same model p = 16.04%)

Price	Break-Even	Edge	Verdict
+700	12.50%	+3.54%	Strong buy
+650	13.33%	+2.71%	Playable
+600	14.29%	+1.75%	Thin value
+550	15.38%	+0.66%	Borderline
+500	16.67%	-0.63%	Pass

If your local line is +550 or worse, edge gets very thin and can disappear fast.

$ Stake Calculator for the Exact Recommended Bet

Stake ($)

Profit if wins

$70.00

Total return if wins

$80.00

Model EV (long-run)

+$2.83

EV uses model p(win)=16.04% and odds +700. This is not a guarantee for one ticket; it is a long-run expectation metric.

Method + Reproducible Math

This report used live FanDuel board extraction plus a simple Monte Carlo script for the Maye rushing market. The model is intentionally transparent and easy to challenge.

implied_prob(+A) = 100 / (A + 100)
implied_prob(-A) = A / (A + 100)
break_even = implied_prob
EV_per_$1 = p(win) * net_odds - (1 - p(win))

# Maye +700:
break_even = 12.50%
model_p = 16.04%
edge = +3.54%
EV_per_$1 = +0.283

// Monte Carlo skeleton used for Maye most-rushing estimate
for (i = 0; i < N; i++) {
  maye = underdog_script ? Normal(43, 23) : Normal(29, 16);
  walker = Normal(57, 24);
  stevenson = Normal(49, 22);
  if (maye > max(walker, stevenson, darnold, holani, henderson)) wins++;
}
p = wins / N;

Main uncertainty driver is exact usage split (especially Walker/Holani and Pats game script). If those assumptions are off, edge can compress.

Primary Sources Used

Bottom line: if you want one small-stake, high-payout ticket with the best quantitative case from this board, Maye Most Rushing Yards (+700) is the pick.